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KPS vs Sporting Kristina — Suomen Cup 2018

KPS
KPS
FT
1 – 7
Sporting Kristina
Sporting Kristina
3/24/2024Suomen CupSuomen Cup · 2nd RoundKipparihalli

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

KPS2%
×Draw4%
Sporting Kristina94%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

KPS
0.78
Sporting Kristina
5.28

Sporting Kristina creates 577% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

creates per match

KPS
0.75
Sporting Kristina
3.80

allows per match

KPS
6.75
Sporting Kristina
0.80

finishing

KPS+0.00on par
Sporting Kristina+0.00on par

Total goals

92%Over
  • Over92
  • Under8

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

KPS ↓

Sporting Kristina →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–00%
0–12%
0–25%
0–38%
0–410%
1
1–00%
1–11%
1–24%
1–36%
1–48%
2
2–00%
2–11%
2–21%
2–32%
2–43%
3
3–00%
3–10%
3–20%
3–31%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–10%
4–20%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 0–4 (10%) · grid covers 54% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
100%0%1.5
98%2%2.5
92%8%3.5
80%20%4.5
62%38%

Double chance

KPS or draw
6%
KPS or Sporting Kristina
96%
Draw or Sporting Kristina
98%

Winning margin

KPS wins by 2+
0%
Sporting Kristina wins by 2+
86%

Team goals

KPS 1+ goals
54%
KPS 2+ goals
18%
KPS 3+ goals
4%
Sporting Kristina 1+ goals
99%
Sporting Kristina 2+ goals
96%
Sporting Kristina 3+ goals
86%

Draw no bet

KPS (draw refunded)
2%
Sporting Kristina (draw refunded)
98%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
1%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

KPS at home — creates 0.75, concedes 6.75 · 4 matches

Sporting Kristina away — creates 3.80, concedes 0.80 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

KPS attack 0.75 + Sporting Kristina defence 0.80 → ÷2 → 0.78

Sporting Kristina attack 3.80 + KPS defence 6.75 → ÷2 → 5.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 94%?"

KPS scores more
2%
level
4%
Sporting Kristina scores more
94%

Sporting Kristina at 94% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 94% does not mean "Sporting Kristina will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: KPS vs Sporting Kristina

Sporting Kristina beat KPS 7-1 in Suomen Cup on March 24, 2024.

The match was played at Kipparihalli in Kokkola.