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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Vardar Skopje — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Vardar Skopje
Vardar Skopje
5/13/2023Second LeagueSecond League · Round 30Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija34%
×Draw26%
Vardar Skopje40%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.26
Vardar Skopje
1.38

Vardar Skopje creates 10% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 16 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Vardar Skopje
1.69

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Vardar Skopje
0.81

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Vardar Skopje+0.00on par

Total goals

51%Under
  • Under51
  • Over49

Close call

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Vardar Skopje →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
74%26%2.5
49%51%3.5
27%73%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
60%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Vardar Skopje
74%
Draw or Vardar Skopje
66%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
15%
Vardar Skopje wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
72%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
36%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
13%
Vardar Skopje 1+ goals
75%
Vardar Skopje 2+ goals
40%
Vardar Skopje 3+ goals
16%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
46%
Vardar Skopje (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
41%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Vardar Skopje away — creates 1.69, concedes 0.81 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Vardar Skopje defence 0.81 → ÷2 → 1.26

Vardar Skopje attack 1.69 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 1.38

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
34%
level
26%
Vardar Skopje scores more
40%

Vardar Skopje at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Vardar Skopje will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Second League: Kozuv Gevgelija 3–1 Vardar Skopje

Kozuv Gevgelija beat Vardar Skopje 3-1 in Second League on May 13, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.