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Kozuv Gevgelija vs Plačkovica — Second League 2019

Kozuv Gevgelija
Kozuv Gevgelija
FT
0 – 0
Plačkovica
Plačkovica
2/27/2021Second LeagueSecond League · East - 17Stadion FK Kožuf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 24+ matches

Kozuv Gevgelija60%
×Draw21%
Plačkovica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.98
Plačkovica
0.98

Kozuv Gevgelija creates 102% more chances

Season form · 83 home / 24 away

creates per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.71
Plačkovica
0.88

allows per match

Kozuv Gevgelija
1.07
Plačkovica
2.25

finishing

Kozuv Gevgelija+0.00on par
Plačkovica+0.00on par

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozuv Gevgelija ↓

Plačkovica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–110%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
79%21%2.5
57%43%3.5
34%66%4.5
17%83%

Double chance

Kozuv Gevgelija or draw
82%
Kozuv Gevgelija or Plačkovica
79%
Draw or Plačkovica
40%

Winning margin

Kozuv Gevgelija wins by 2+
36%
Plačkovica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kozuv Gevgelija 1+ goals
86%
Kozuv Gevgelija 2+ goals
59%
Kozuv Gevgelija 3+ goals
31%
Plačkovica 1+ goals
62%
Plačkovica 2+ goals
26%
Plačkovica 3+ goals
8%

Draw no bet

Kozuv Gevgelija (draw refunded)
77%
Plačkovica (draw refunded)
23%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
44%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozuv Gevgelija at home — creates 1.71, concedes 1.07 · 83 matches

Plačkovica away — creates 0.88, concedes 2.25 · 24 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozuv Gevgelija attack 1.71 + Plačkovica defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 1.98

Plačkovica attack 0.88 + Kozuv Gevgelija defence 1.07 → ÷2 → 0.98

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 60%?"

Kozuv Gevgelija scores more
60%
level
21%
Plačkovica scores more
18%

Kozuv Gevgelija at 60% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 60% does not mean "Kozuv Gevgelija will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozuv Gevgelija vs Plačkovica

Kozuv Gevgelija and Plačkovica drew 0-0 in Second League on February 27, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kožuf in Gevgelija.