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Kozlovice vs Tatran Všechovice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kozlovice
Kozlovice
FT
3 – 2
HT: 3 – 0
Tatran Všechovice
Tatran Všechovice
8/24/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 4Areal Sportu Kozlovice

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 79+ matches

Kozlovice58%
×Draw19%
Tatran Všechovice23%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozlovice
2.45
Tatran Všechovice
1.48

Kozlovice creates 66% more chances

Season form · 80 home / 79 away

creates per match

Kozlovice
2.39
Tatran Všechovice
1.76

allows per match

Kozlovice
1.19
Tatran Všechovice
2.51

finishing

Kozlovice+0.00on par
Tatran Všechovice+0.00on par

Total goals

75%Over
  • Over75
  • Under25

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

70%Yes
  • Yes70
  • No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozlovice ↓

Tatran Všechovice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–13%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–05%
1–17%
1–25%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–05%
3–17%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–32%
4–41%

Most likely 2–1 (9%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
90%10%2.5
75%25%3.5
55%45%4.5
35%65%

Double chance

Kozlovice or draw
77%
Kozlovice or Tatran Všechovice
81%
Draw or Tatran Všechovice
42%

Winning margin

Kozlovice wins by 2+
37%
Tatran Všechovice wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kozlovice 1+ goals
91%
Kozlovice 2+ goals
70%
Kozlovice 3+ goals
44%
Tatran Všechovice 1+ goals
77%
Tatran Všechovice 2+ goals
43%
Tatran Všechovice 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kozlovice (draw refunded)
72%
Tatran Všechovice (draw refunded)
28%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozlovice at home — creates 2.39, concedes 1.19 · 80 matches

Tatran Všechovice away — creates 1.76, concedes 2.51 · 79 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozlovice attack 2.39 + Tatran Všechovice defence 2.51 → ÷2 → 2.45

Tatran Všechovice attack 1.76 + Kozlovice defence 1.19 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kozlovice scores more
58%
level
19%
Tatran Všechovice scores more
23%

Kozlovice at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kozlovice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

4. liga - Divizie E: Kozlovice 3–2 Tatran Všechovice

Kozlovice beat Tatran Všechovice 3-2 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 24, 2025.

The match was played at Areal Sportu Kozlovice in Kozlovice.