Kozarmisleny FC 1–1 Soroksar: Result & Stats

Kozarmisleny FC

FT

1 – 1

HT: 0 – 1

Soroksar

B. Babinszky 58'

N. Kundrak 19'

8/17/2025

NB II · Round 4Kozármislenyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozarmisleny FC38%

×Draw28%

Soroksar34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozarmisleny FCExpected goals in this matchSoroksar

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.23

1.15

Kozarmisleny FC

1.23

Soroksar

1.15

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 35 away

1.07

creates per match

0.97

1.33

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Kozarmisleny FC

1.07

Soroksar

0.97

allows per match

Kozarmisleny FC

1.33

Soroksar

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Soroksar+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozarmisleny FC ↓

Soroksar →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–111%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–011%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

69%31%2.5

42%58%3.5

22%78%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kozarmisleny FC or draw

66%

Kozarmisleny FC or Soroksar

72%

Draw or Soroksar

62%

Winning margin

Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+

16%

Soroksar wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals

71%

Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals

35%

Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals

13%

Soroksar 1+ goals

68%

Soroksar 2+ goals

32%

Soroksar 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)

53%

Soroksar (draw refunded)

47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozarmisleny FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Soroksar away — creates 0.97, concedes 1.40 · 35 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.07 + Soroksar defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 1.23

Soroksar attack 0.97 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kozarmisleny FC scores more

38%

level

28%

Soroksar scores more

34%

Kozarmisleny FC at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Kozarmisleny FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

8'

19'

39'

58'

59'

S. Bako← C. Mate

63'

G. Gajag

66'

D. Lukacs← O. Nagy

71'

E. Kocs-Washburn← R. Jelena

71'

Z. Pesti← D. Szalka

81'

N. Kundrak

82'

K. Korozman← N. Kundrak

84'

85'

90+2'

90+2'

90+4'

Kozarmisleny

Soroksar

1

Radnoti

25

▼

4

18

66

8

14

11

10

65

⚽

▼

20

66

5

8

▼

Mate

9

⚽

13

20

22

23

▼

Szalka

32

▼

Jelena

55

Horvath

77

▼

Turi

Manager: Z. Aczél

59'▲S. Bako←▼C. Mate

71'▲E. Kocs-Washburn←▼R. Jelena

71'▲Z. Pesti←▼D. Szalka

84'▲A. Nagirnyi←▼T. Turi

Kozarmisleny FC substitutes

1Oroszi6Sebestyen7Dobos10Bako16Bodrogi17Biro19Kocs-Washburn21Nagirnyi28Pesti30Pupp

Manager: P. Lipcsei

66'▲D. Lukacs←▼O. Nagy

82'▲K. Korozman←▼N. Kundrak

Soroksar substitutes

31Holczer33Ori19Lukacs3Tumma22Lakatos6Nemeth27Bagi7Korozman68Zeteny17Gagyor9Toth