Kozarmisleny FC 1–0 Ajka: Result & Stats | NB II

Kozarmisleny FC

FT

1 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Ajka

K. Kirchner 69' (pen)

4/21/2024

NB II · Round 29Kozármislenyi Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozarmisleny FC39%

×Draw28%

Ajka33%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozarmisleny FCExpected goals in this matchAjka

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.25

1.11

Kozarmisleny FC

1.25

Ajka

1.11

Kozarmisleny FC creates 13% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 37 away

1.07

creates per match

0.89

1.33

allows per match

1.43

creates per match

Kozarmisleny FC

1.07

Ajka

0.89

allows per match

Kozarmisleny FC

1.33

Ajka

1.43

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozarmisleny FC+0.00on par

Ajka+0.00on par

Total goals

Under58
Over42

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozarmisleny FC ↓

Ajka →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–09%

0–110%

0–26%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–18%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–03%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

91%9%1.5

68%32%2.5

42%58%3.5

21%79%4.5

9%91%

Double chance

Kozarmisleny FC or draw

67%

Kozarmisleny FC or Ajka

72%

Draw or Ajka

61%

Winning margin

Kozarmisleny FC wins by 2+

17%

Ajka wins by 2+

13%

Team goals

Kozarmisleny FC 1+ goals

71%

Kozarmisleny FC 2+ goals

36%

Kozarmisleny FC 3+ goals

13%

Ajka 1+ goals

67%

Ajka 2+ goals

30%

Ajka 3+ goals

10%

Draw no bet

Kozarmisleny FC (draw refunded)

55%

Ajka (draw refunded)

45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

35%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozarmisleny FC at home — creates 1.07, concedes 1.33 · 27 matches

Ajka away — creates 0.89, concedes 1.43 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozarmisleny FC attack 1.07 + Ajka defence 1.43 → ÷2 → 1.25

Ajka attack 0.89 + Kozarmisleny FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.11

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kozarmisleny FC scores more

39%

level

28%

Ajka scores more

33%

Kozarmisleny FC at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Kozarmisleny FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

61'

R. Schuszter

63'

N. Pantovic

65'

R. Zsolnai← F. Borsos

68'

Z. Tar

69'

K. KirchnerPenalty

70'

P. Horváth← D. Bor

78'

P. Horváth← G. Tóth

81'

Z. Toth

82'

Z. Kenderes← N. Pantović

86'

B. Vogyicska← Z. Tóth

Kozarmisleny

Ajka

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

Manager: Z. Aczél

70'▲P. Horváth←▼D. Bor

86'▲B. Vogyicska←▼Z. Tóth

Kozarmisleny FC substitutes

HorváthVogyicskaHegedűsKósaKoszovscsukBekeIpacs

Manager: S. Schindler

65'▲R. Zsolnai←▼F. Borsos

78'▲P. Horváth←▼G. Tóth

82'▲Z. Kenderes←▼N. Pantović

Ajka substitutes

ZsolnaiHorváthKenderesPrésingerFiáthGaálHorváthSzűcsBaloghForgó