Kozara 0–4 Stari Grad: Result & Stats

Kozara

FT

0 – 4

Stari Grad

5/8/2021

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 33Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara37%

×Draw23%

Stari Grad40%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KozaraExpected goals in this matchStari Grad

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.58

1.66

Kozara

1.58

Stari Grad

1.66

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 34 away

1.22

creates per match

1.09

2.22

allows per match

1.94

creates per match

Kozara

1.22

Stari Grad

1.09

allows per match

Kozara

2.22

Stari Grad

1.94

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par

Stari Grad+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes64
No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

Stari Grad →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–17%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

83%17%2.5

63%37%3.5

40%60%4.5

22%78%

Double chance

Kozara or draw

60%

Kozara or Stari Grad

77%

Draw or Stari Grad

63%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+

18%

Stari Grad wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals

79%

Kozara 2+ goals

47%

Kozara 3+ goals

21%

Stari Grad 1+ goals

81%

Stari Grad 2+ goals

49%

Stari Grad 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)

48%

Stari Grad (draw refunded)

52%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

54%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Stari Grad away — creates 1.09, concedes 1.94 · 34 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + Stari Grad defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.58

Stari Grad attack 1.09 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.66

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kozara scores more

37%

level

23%

Stari Grad scores more

40%

Stari Grad at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Stari Grad will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff