Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kozara vs OFK Vršac — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kozara
Kozara
FT
0 – 4
OFK Vršac
OFK Vršac
5/19/2021Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 35Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara27%
×Draw22%
OFK Vršac51%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara
1.34
OFK Vršac
1.94

OFK Vršac creates 45% more chances

Season form · 27 home / 43 away

creates per match

Kozara
1.22
OFK Vršac
1.65

allows per match

Kozara
2.22
OFK Vršac
1.47

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par
OFK Vršac+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

OFK Vršac →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–42%
1
1–05%
1–110%
1–210%
1–36%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–17%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kozara or draw
49%
Kozara or OFK Vršac
78%
Draw or OFK Vršac
73%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+
11%
OFK Vršac wins by 2+
29%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals
74%
Kozara 2+ goals
39%
Kozara 3+ goals
15%
OFK Vršac 1+ goals
86%
OFK Vršac 2+ goals
58%
OFK Vršac 3+ goals
30%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)
34%
OFK Vršac (draw refunded)
66%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

OFK Vršac away — creates 1.65, concedes 1.47 · 43 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + OFK Vršac defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.34

OFK Vršac attack 1.65 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 51%?"

Kozara scores more
27%
level
22%
OFK Vršac scores more
51%

OFK Vršac at 51% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 51% does not mean "OFK Vršac will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozara vs OFK Vršac

OFK Vršac beat Kozara 4-0 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on May 19, 2021.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kozara in Banatsko Veliko Selo.