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Kozara vs Jedinstvo Stara Pazova — Srpska Liga - Vojvodina 2019

Kozara
Kozara
FT
2 – 2
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
10/3/2020Srpska Liga - VojvodinaSrpska Liga - Vojvodina · Vojvodina - 10Stadion FK Kozara

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 27+ matches

Kozara35%
×Draw24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara
1.50
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.63

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 27 home / 78 away

creates per match

Kozara
1.22
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.03

allows per match

Kozara
2.22
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
1.78

finishing

Kozara+0.00on par
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

62%Yes
  • Yes62
  • No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara ↓

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
38%62%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kozara or draw
59%
Kozara or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
76%
Draw or Jedinstvo Stara Pazova
65%

Winning margin

Kozara wins by 2+
17%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kozara 1+ goals
78%
Kozara 2+ goals
44%
Kozara 3+ goals
19%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 1+ goals
80%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 2+ goals
48%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova 3+ goals
22%

Draw no bet

Kozara (draw refunded)
46%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova (draw refunded)
54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
52%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara at home — creates 1.22, concedes 2.22 · 27 matches

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova away — creates 1.03, concedes 1.78 · 78 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara attack 1.22 + Jedinstvo Stara Pazova defence 1.78 → ÷2 → 1.50

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova attack 1.03 + Kozara defence 2.22 → ÷2 → 1.63

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kozara scores more
35%
level
24%
Jedinstvo Stara Pazova scores more
41%

Jedinstvo Stara Pazova at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Jedinstvo Stara Pazova will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Srpska Liga - Vojvodina: Kozara 2–2 Jedinstvo Stara Pazova

Kozara and Jedinstvo Stara Pazova drew 2-2 in Srpska Liga - Vojvodina on October 3, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion FK Kozara in Banatsko Veliko Selo.