Kozara Gradiška 1–1 Podrinje Janja: Result & Stats

Kozara Gradiška

FT

1 – 1

Podrinje Janja

4/24/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 24Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 54+ matches

Kozara Gradiška62%

×Draw21%

Podrinje Janja17%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozara GradiškaExpected goals in this matchPodrinje Janja

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.02

0.93

Kozara Gradiška

2.02

Podrinje Janja

0.93

Kozara Gradiška creates 117% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 54 away

1.62

creates per match

0.80

1.05

allows per match

2.41

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.62

Podrinje Janja

0.80

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.05

Podrinje Janja

2.41

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Podrinje Janja+0.00on par

Total goals

Over56
Under44

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Podrinje Janja →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–15%

0–22%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–011%

1–110%

1–25%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–25%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–07%

3–17%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–04%

4–13%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

79%21%2.5

56%44%3.5

34%66%4.5

17%83%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw

83%

Kozara Gradiška or Podrinje Janja

79%

Draw or Podrinje Janja

38%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+

38%

Podrinje Janja wins by 2+

5%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals

87%

Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals

60%

Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals

33%

Podrinje Janja 1+ goals

61%

Podrinje Janja 2+ goals

24%

Podrinje Janja 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)

79%

Podrinje Janja (draw refunded)

21%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

43%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Podrinje Janja away — creates 0.80, concedes 2.41 · 54 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Podrinje Janja defence 2.41 → ÷2 → 2.02

Podrinje Janja attack 0.80 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.93

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more

62%

level

21%

Podrinje Janja scores more

17%

Kozara Gradiška at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff