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Kozara Gradiška vs Omarska — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Omarska
Omarska
11/25/20231st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 17Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 65+ matches

Kozara Gradiška64%
×Draw20%
Omarska16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
2.15
Omarska
0.96

Kozara Gradiška creates 124% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 65 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
Omarska
0.86

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
Omarska
2.68

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
Omarska+0.00on par

Total goals

60%Over
  • Over60
  • Under40

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

54%Yes
  • Yes54
  • No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Omarska →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–010%
1–19%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
82%18%2.5
60%40%3.5
37%63%4.5
20%80%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
84%
Kozara Gradiška or Omarska
80%
Draw or Omarska
36%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
41%
Omarska wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
88%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
63%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
36%
Omarska 1+ goals
62%
Omarska 2+ goals
25%
Omarska 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
80%
Omarska (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
45%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Omarska away — creates 0.86, concedes 2.68 · 65 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Omarska defence 2.68 → ÷2 → 2.15

Omarska attack 0.86 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
64%
level
20%
Omarska scores more
16%

Kozara Gradiška at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Kozara Gradiška 2–0 Omarska

Kozara Gradiška beat Omarska 2-0 in 1st League - RS on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.