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Kozara Gradiška vs Modriča — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
4 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
Modriča
Modriča
4/19/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 26Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 71+ matches

Kozara Gradiška63%
×Draw21%
Modriča16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
1.98
Modriča
0.88

Kozara Gradiška creates 125% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 71 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
Modriča
0.70

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
Modriča
2.34

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
Modriča+0.00on par

Total goals

54%Over
  • Over54
  • Under46

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Modriča →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–15%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–110%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (11%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
78%22%2.5
54%46%3.5
32%68%4.5
16%84%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
84%
Kozara Gradiška or Modriča
79%
Draw or Modriča
37%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
38%
Modriča wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
86%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
59%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
31%
Modriča 1+ goals
59%
Modriča 2+ goals
22%
Modriča 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
80%
Modriča (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Modriča away — creates 0.70, concedes 2.34 · 71 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Modriča defence 2.34 → ÷2 → 1.98

Modriča attack 0.70 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.88

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 63%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
63%
level
21%
Modriča scores more
16%

Kozara Gradiška at 63% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 63% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Kozara Gradiška 4–1 Modriča

Kozara Gradiška beat Modriča 4-1 in 1st League - RS on April 19, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.