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Kozara Gradiška vs Krupa na Vrbasu — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
2 – 2
Krupa na Vrbasu
Krupa na Vrbasu
9/17/20221st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 8Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 39+ matches

Kozara Gradiška30%
×Draw26%
Krupa na Vrbasu44%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
1.13
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.42

Krupa na Vrbasu creates 26% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 39 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
Krupa na Vrbasu
1.79

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
Krupa na Vrbasu
0.64

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
Krupa na Vrbasu+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Krupa na Vrbasu →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–111%
0–28%
0–34%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–113%
1–29%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–05%
2–17%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
56%
Kozara Gradiška or Krupa na Vrbasu
74%
Draw or Krupa na Vrbasu
70%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
12%
Krupa na Vrbasu wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
68%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
31%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
11%
Krupa na Vrbasu 1+ goals
76%
Krupa na Vrbasu 2+ goals
41%
Krupa na Vrbasu 3+ goals
17%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
41%
Krupa na Vrbasu (draw refunded)
59%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Krupa na Vrbasu away — creates 1.79, concedes 0.64 · 39 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Krupa na Vrbasu defence 0.64 → ÷2 → 1.13

Krupa na Vrbasu attack 1.79 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
30%
level
26%
Krupa na Vrbasu scores more
44%

Krupa na Vrbasu at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Krupa na Vrbasu will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozara Gradiška vs Krupa na Vrbasu

Kozara Gradiška and Krupa na Vrbasu drew 2-2 in 1st League - RS on September 17, 2022.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.