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Kozara Gradiška vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
2 – 1
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
9/14/20191st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 6Gradski Stadion (Gradiška)

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 21+ matches

Kozara Gradiška68%
×Draw18%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko14%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
2.36
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.96

Kozara Gradiška creates 146% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 21 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
0.86

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
FK Jedinstvo Brcko
3.10

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
FK Jedinstvo Brcko+0.00on par

Total goals

64%Over
  • Over64
  • Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

56%Yes
  • Yes56
  • No44

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

FK Jedinstvo Brcko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–18%
1–24%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–010%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–08%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–05%
4–15%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
84%16%2.5
64%36%3.5
42%58%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
86%
Kozara Gradiška or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
82%
Draw or FK Jedinstvo Brcko
32%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
45%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko wins by 2+
5%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
90%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
68%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
41%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 1+ goals
62%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2+ goals
25%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
83%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko (draw refunded)
17%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

FK Jedinstvo Brcko away — creates 0.86, concedes 3.10 · 21 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + FK Jedinstvo Brcko defence 3.10 → ÷2 → 2.36

FK Jedinstvo Brcko attack 0.86 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.96

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 68%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
68%
level
18%
FK Jedinstvo Brcko scores more
14%

Kozara Gradiška at 68% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 68% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozara Gradiška vs FK Jedinstvo Brcko

Kozara Gradiška beat FK Jedinstvo Brcko 2-1 in 1st League - RS on September 14, 2019.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion (Gradiška).