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Kozara Gradiška vs Famos Vojkovići — 1st League - RS 2019

Kozara Gradiška
Kozara Gradiška
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Famos Vojkovići
Famos Vojkovići
10/26/20241st League - RS1st League - RS · RS - 13Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 66+ matches

Kozara Gradiška58%
×Draw23%
Famos Vojkovići19%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozara Gradiška
1.78
Famos Vojkovići
0.89

Kozara Gradiška creates 100% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 66 away

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.62
Famos Vojkovići
0.73

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška
1.05
Famos Vojkovići
1.94

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par
Famos Vojkovići+0.00on par

Total goals

50%Under
  • Under50
  • Over50

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Famos Vojkovići →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–16%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–31%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–16%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–13%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
75%25%2.5
50%50%3.5
28%72%4.5
13%87%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw
81%
Kozara Gradiška or Famos Vojkovići
77%
Draw or Famos Vojkovići
42%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+
33%
Famos Vojkovići wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals
83%
Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals
53%
Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals
26%
Famos Vojkovići 1+ goals
59%
Famos Vojkovići 2+ goals
22%
Famos Vojkovići 3+ goals
6%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)
76%
Famos Vojkovići (draw refunded)
24%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Famos Vojkovići away — creates 0.73, concedes 1.94 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Famos Vojkovići defence 1.94 → ÷2 → 1.78

Famos Vojkovići attack 0.73 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.89

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 58%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more
58%
level
23%
Famos Vojkovići scores more
19%

Kozara Gradiška at 58% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 58% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

1st League - RS: Kozara Gradiška 0–0 Famos Vojkovići

Kozara Gradiška and Famos Vojkovići drew 0-0 in 1st League - RS on October 26, 2024.

The match was played at Gradski Stadion in Gradiška.