Kozara Gradiška 3–0 Budućnost Pilica

Kozara Gradiška

FT

3 – 0

Budućnost Pilica

8/21/2021

1st League - RS · RS - 2Gradski Stadion

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kozara Gradiška78%

×Draw14%

Budućnost Pilica8%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50%

Always home

44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozara GradiškaExpected goals in this matchBudućnost Pilica

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.65

0.73

Kozara Gradiška

2.65

Budućnost Pilica

0.73

Kozara Gradiška creates 263% more chances

Season form · 102 home / 15 away

1.62

creates per match

0.40

1.05

allows per match

3.67

creates per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.62

Budućnost Pilica

0.40

allows per match

Kozara Gradiška

1.05

Budućnost Pilica

3.67

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozara Gradiška+0.00on par

Budućnost Pilica+0.00on par

Total goals

Over65
Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozara Gradiška ↓

Budućnost Pilica →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–13%

0–21%

0–30%

0–40%

1

1–09%

1–17%

1–22%

1–31%

1–40%

2

2–012%

2–19%

2–23%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–011%

3–18%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–07%

4–15%

4–22%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 2–0 (12%) · grid covers 89% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

65%35%3.5

43%57%4.5

24%76%

Double chance

Kozara Gradiška or draw

92%

Kozara Gradiška or Budućnost Pilica

86%

Draw or Budućnost Pilica

22%

Winning margin

Kozara Gradiška wins by 2+

56%

Budućnost Pilica wins by 2+

2%

Team goals

Kozara Gradiška 1+ goals

93%

Kozara Gradiška 2+ goals

74%

Kozara Gradiška 3+ goals

48%

Budućnost Pilica 1+ goals

52%

Budućnost Pilica 2+ goals

17%

Budućnost Pilica 3+ goals

4%

Draw no bet

Kozara Gradiška (draw refunded)

91%

Budućnost Pilica (draw refunded)

9%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

41%

Both score & under 3

7%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozara Gradiška at home — creates 1.62, concedes 1.05 · 102 matches

Budućnost Pilica away — creates 0.40, concedes 3.67 · 15 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozara Gradiška attack 1.62 + Budućnost Pilica defence 3.67 → ÷2 → 2.65

Budućnost Pilica attack 0.40 + Kozara Gradiška defence 1.05 → ÷2 → 0.73

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 78%?"

Kozara Gradiška scores more

78%

level

14%

Budućnost Pilica scores more

8%

Kozara Gradiška at 78% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 78% does not mean "Kozara Gradiška will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff