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Kozakken Boys vs OJC Rosmalen — Derde Divisie - Sunday 2019

Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
FT
5 – 1
HT: 1 – 1
OJC Rosmalen
OJC Rosmalen
5/17/2025Derde Divisie - SundayDerde Divisie - Sunday · Group B - 33Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kozakken Boys65%
×Draw19%
OJC Rosmalen16%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozakken Boys
2.30
OJC Rosmalen
1.05

Kozakken Boys creates 119% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kozakken Boys
2.76
OJC Rosmalen
1.45

allows per match

Kozakken Boys
0.65
OJC Rosmalen
1.84

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par
OJC Rosmalen+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

58%Yes
  • Yes58
  • No42

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

OJC Rosmalen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–08%
1–19%
1–24%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–18%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw
84%
Kozakken Boys or OJC Rosmalen
81%
Draw or OJC Rosmalen
35%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
42%
OJC Rosmalen wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
90%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
67%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
40%
OJC Rosmalen 1+ goals
65%
OJC Rosmalen 2+ goals
28%
OJC Rosmalen 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
80%
OJC Rosmalen (draw refunded)
20%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
50%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 2.76, concedes 0.65 · 17 matches

OJC Rosmalen away — creates 1.45, concedes 1.84 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 2.76 + OJC Rosmalen defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 2.30

OJC Rosmalen attack 1.45 + Kozakken Boys defence 0.65 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 65%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more
65%
level
19%
OJC Rosmalen scores more
16%

Kozakken Boys at 65% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 65% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Derde Divisie - Sunday: Kozakken Boys 5–1 OJC Rosmalen

Kozakken Boys beat OJC Rosmalen 5-1 in Derde Divisie - Sunday on May 17, 2025.

The match was played at Sportpark De Zwaaier in Werkendam.