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Kozakken Boys vs GVVV Veenendaal — Tweede Divisie 2019

Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
FT
0 – 4
HT: 0 – 1
GVVV Veenendaal
GVVV Veenendaal
5/4/2024Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 31Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 84+ matches

Kozakken Boys42%
×Draw23%
GVVV Veenendaal34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozakken Boys
1.72
GVVV Veenendaal
1.53

Kozakken Boys creates 12% more chances

Season form · 84 home / 86 away

creates per match

Kozakken Boys
1.58
GVVV Veenendaal
1.36

allows per match

Kozakken Boys
1.70
GVVV Veenendaal
1.85

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par
GVVV Veenendaal+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

GVVV Veenendaal →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw
66%
Kozakken Boys or GVVV Veenendaal
77%
Draw or GVVV Veenendaal
58%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
22%
GVVV Veenendaal wins by 2+
16%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
82%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
51%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
25%
GVVV Veenendaal 1+ goals
78%
GVVV Veenendaal 2+ goals
45%
GVVV Veenendaal 3+ goals
20%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
55%
GVVV Veenendaal (draw refunded)
45%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

GVVV Veenendaal away — creates 1.36, concedes 1.85 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + GVVV Veenendaal defence 1.85 → ÷2 → 1.72

GVVV Veenendaal attack 1.36 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.53

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more
42%
level
23%
GVVV Veenendaal scores more
34%

Kozakken Boys at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kozakken Boys will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kozakken Boys vs GVVV Veenendaal

GVVV Veenendaal beat Kozakken Boys 4-0 in Tweede Divisie on May 4, 2024.

The match was played at Sportpark De Zwaaier in Werkendam.