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Kozakken Boys vs De Treffers — Tweede Divisie 2019

Kozakken Boys
Kozakken Boys
FT
3 – 1
HT: 0 – 0
De Treffers
De Treffers
4/1/2023Tweede DivisieTweede Divisie · Round 27Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 83+ matches

Kozakken Boys36%
×Draw24%
De Treffers41%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50%
Always home
44.6%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50% correct across 579,794 matches, vs 44.6% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.2% correct · Away picks 49.2% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kozakken Boys
1.53
De Treffers
1.65

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 83 home / 100 away

creates per match

Kozakken Boys
1.55
De Treffers
1.60

allows per match

Kozakken Boys
1.70
De Treffers
1.51

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par
De Treffers+0.00on par

Total goals

61%Over
  • Over61
  • Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

De Treffers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–26%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–111%
1–29%
1–35%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–02%
3–14%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
61%39%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw
59%
Kozakken Boys or De Treffers
76%
Draw or De Treffers
64%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+
17%
De Treffers wins by 2+
21%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals
78%
Kozakken Boys 2+ goals
45%
Kozakken Boys 3+ goals
20%
De Treffers 1+ goals
81%
De Treffers 2+ goals
49%
De Treffers 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)
47%
De Treffers (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
53%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.55, concedes 1.70 · 83 matches

De Treffers away — creates 1.60, concedes 1.51 · 100 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.55 + De Treffers defence 1.51 → ÷2 → 1.53

De Treffers attack 1.60 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.65

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more
36%
level
24%
De Treffers scores more
41%

De Treffers at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "De Treffers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kozakken Boys 3 – 1 De Treffers

Kozakken Boys beat De Treffers 3-1 in Tweede Divisie on April 1, 2023.

The match was played at Sportpark De Zwaaier in Werkendam.