Kozakken Boys 3–4 Almere City II: Result & Stats

Kozakken Boys

FT

3 – 4

HT: 0 – 2

Almere City II

3/23/2024

Tweede Divisie · Round 26Sportpark De Zwaaier

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 51+ matches

Kozakken Boys36%

×Draw23%

Almere City II42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kozakken BoysExpected goals in this matchAlmere City II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.64

1.78

Kozakken Boys

1.64

Almere City II

1.78

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 84 home / 51 away

1.58

creates per match

1.86

1.70

allows per match

1.69

creates per match

Kozakken Boys

1.58

Almere City II

1.86

allows per match

Kozakken Boys

1.70

Almere City II

1.69

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kozakken Boys+0.00on par

Almere City II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes67
No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kozakken Boys ↓

Almere City II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–110%

1–29%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

85%15%2.5

66%34%3.5

44%56%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kozakken Boys or draw

58%

Kozakken Boys or Almere City II

77%

Draw or Almere City II

64%

Winning margin

Kozakken Boys wins by 2+

18%

Almere City II wins by 2+

22%

Team goals

Kozakken Boys 1+ goals

81%

Kozakken Boys 2+ goals

49%

Kozakken Boys 3+ goals

23%

Almere City II 1+ goals

83%

Almere City II 2+ goals

53%

Almere City II 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kozakken Boys (draw refunded)

46%

Almere City II (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kozakken Boys at home — creates 1.58, concedes 1.70 · 84 matches

Almere City II away — creates 1.86, concedes 1.69 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kozakken Boys attack 1.58 + Almere City II defence 1.69 → ÷2 → 1.64

Almere City II attack 1.86 + Kozakken Boys defence 1.70 → ÷2 → 1.78

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kozakken Boys scores more

36%

level

23%

Almere City II scores more

42%

Almere City II at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Almere City II will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff