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Kowloon City vs Southern District — League #380 2026

Kowloon City
Kowloon City
FT
0 – 2
HT: 0 – 1
Southern District
Southern District
5/18/2025League #380League #380 · Round 26Sham Shui Po Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Kowloon City35%
×Draw27%
Southern District39%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kowloon City
1.23
Southern District
1.32

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 4 home / 13 away

creates per match

Kowloon City
1.00
Southern District
1.15

allows per match

Kowloon City
1.50
Southern District
1.46

finishing

Kowloon City+0.00on par
Southern District+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kowloon City ↓

Southern District →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–110%
0–27%
0–33%
0–41%
1
1–010%
1–113%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–18%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–02%
3–13%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kowloon City or draw
61%
Kowloon City or Southern District
73%
Draw or Southern District
65%

Winning margin

Kowloon City wins by 2+
15%
Southern District wins by 2+
17%

Team goals

Kowloon City 1+ goals
71%
Kowloon City 2+ goals
35%
Kowloon City 3+ goals
13%
Southern District 1+ goals
73%
Southern District 2+ goals
38%
Southern District 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Kowloon City (draw refunded)
47%
Southern District (draw refunded)
53%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kowloon City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Southern District away — creates 1.15, concedes 1.46 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kowloon City attack 1.00 + Southern District defence 1.46 → ÷2 → 1.23

Southern District attack 1.15 + Kowloon City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.32

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Kowloon City scores more
35%
level
27%
Southern District scores more
39%

Southern District at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "Southern District will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kowloon City vs Southern District

Southern District beat Kowloon City 2-0 in League #380 on May 18, 2025.

The match was played at Sham Shui Po Sports Ground in Kowloon.