Kowloon City 1–2 Hong Kong FC: Result & Stats

Kowloon City

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 2

Hong Kong FC

10/26/2025

League #380 · Round 6Sham Shui Po Sports Ground

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 3+ matches

Kowloon City31%

×Draw26%

Hong Kong FC43%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kowloon CityExpected goals in this matchHong Kong FC

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.17

1.42

Kowloon City

1.17

Hong Kong FC

1.42

Hong Kong FC creates 21% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 3 away

1.00

creates per match

1.33

1.50

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kowloon City

1.00

Hong Kong FC

1.33

allows per match

Kowloon City

1.50

Hong Kong FC

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kowloon City+0.00on par

Hong Kong FC+0.00on par

Total goals

Under52
Over48

Close call

Both teams score

Yes52
No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kowloon City ↓

Hong Kong FC →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–111%

0–28%

0–34%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–112%

1–29%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–05%

2–17%

2–25%

2–32%

2–41%

3

3–02%

3–13%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

73%27%2.5

48%52%3.5

26%74%4.5

12%88%

Double chance

Kowloon City or draw

57%

Kowloon City or Hong Kong FC

74%

Draw or Hong Kong FC

69%

Winning margin

Kowloon City wins by 2+

13%

Hong Kong FC wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Kowloon City 1+ goals

69%

Kowloon City 2+ goals

33%

Kowloon City 3+ goals

11%

Hong Kong FC 1+ goals

76%

Hong Kong FC 2+ goals

41%

Hong Kong FC 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kowloon City (draw refunded)

42%

Hong Kong FC (draw refunded)

58%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

40%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kowloon City at home — creates 1.00, concedes 1.50 · 4 matches

Hong Kong FC away — creates 1.33, concedes 1.33 · 3 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kowloon City attack 1.00 + Hong Kong FC defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.17

Hong Kong FC attack 1.33 + Kowloon City defence 1.50 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 43%?"

Kowloon City scores more

31%

level

26%

Hong Kong FC scores more

43%

Hong Kong FC at 43% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 43% does not mean "Hong Kong FC will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff