Kováčová 3–2 Novohrad Lučenec: Result & Stats

Kováčová

FT

3 – 2

Novohrad Lučenec

9/20/2020

3. liga - Center · Center - 8Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kováčová45%

×Draw23%

Novohrad Lučenec32%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KováčováExpected goals in this matchNovohrad Lučenec

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.72

1.42

Kováčová

1.72

Novohrad Lučenec

1.42

Kováčová creates 21% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 36 away

1.41

creates per match

1.47

1.36

allows per match

2.03

creates per match

Kováčová

1.41

Novohrad Lučenec

1.47

allows per match

Kováčová

1.36

Novohrad Lučenec

2.03

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par

Novohrad Lučenec+0.00on par

Total goals

Over61
Under39

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Novohrad Lučenec →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–07%

1–111%

1–28%

1–34%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

82%18%2.5

61%39%3.5

38%62%4.5

21%79%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw

68%

Kováčová or Novohrad Lučenec

77%

Draw or Novohrad Lučenec

55%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+

24%

Novohrad Lučenec wins by 2+

14%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals

82%

Kováčová 2+ goals

51%

Kováčová 3+ goals

25%

Novohrad Lučenec 1+ goals

76%

Novohrad Lučenec 2+ goals

41%

Novohrad Lučenec 3+ goals

17%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)

58%

Novohrad Lučenec (draw refunded)

42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Novohrad Lučenec away — creates 1.47, concedes 2.03 · 36 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Novohrad Lučenec defence 2.03 → ÷2 → 1.72

Novohrad Lučenec attack 1.47 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.42

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kováčová scores more

45%

level

23%

Novohrad Lučenec scores more

32%

Kováčová at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kováčová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff