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Kováčová vs Liptovská Štiavnica — 3. liga - Center 2020

Kováčová
Kováčová
CANC
14:30
Liptovská Štiavnica
Liptovská Štiavnica
5/9/20213. liga - Center3. liga - Center · Center - 22Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 22+ matches

Kováčová62%
×Draw20%
Liptovská Štiavnica18%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kováčová
2.14
Liptovská Štiavnica
1.05

Kováčová creates 104% more chances

Season form · 22 home / 23 away

creates per match

Kováčová
1.41
Liptovská Štiavnica
0.74

allows per match

Kováčová
1.36
Liptovská Štiavnica
2.87

finishing

Kováčová+0.00on par
Liptovská Štiavnica+0.00on par

Total goals

62%Over
  • Over62
  • Under38

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

57%Yes
  • Yes57
  • No43

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kováčová ↓

Liptovská Štiavnica →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–09%
1–19%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–110%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–07%
3–17%
3–24%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–04%
4–14%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
62%38%3.5
39%61%4.5
21%79%

Double chance

Kováčová or draw
82%
Kováčová or Liptovská Štiavnica
80%
Draw or Liptovská Štiavnica
38%

Winning margin

Kováčová wins by 2+
39%
Liptovská Štiavnica wins by 2+
6%

Team goals

Kováčová 1+ goals
88%
Kováčová 2+ goals
63%
Kováčová 3+ goals
36%
Liptovská Štiavnica 1+ goals
65%
Liptovská Štiavnica 2+ goals
28%
Liptovská Štiavnica 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kováčová (draw refunded)
78%
Liptovská Štiavnica (draw refunded)
22%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kováčová at home — creates 1.41, concedes 1.36 · 22 matches

Liptovská Štiavnica away — creates 0.74, concedes 2.87 · 23 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kováčová attack 1.41 + Liptovská Štiavnica defence 2.87 → ÷2 → 2.14

Liptovská Štiavnica attack 0.74 + Kováčová defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.05

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 62%?"

Kováčová scores more
62%
level
20%
Liptovská Štiavnica scores more
18%

Kováčová at 62% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 62% does not mean "Kováčová will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kováčová face Liptovská Štiavnica (3. liga - Center)

3. liga - Center returns with Kováčová hosting Liptovská Štiavnica. Match starts May 9, 2021. Live commentary, lineups, and stats appear here from kickoff. Submit your prediction below for a chance to earn XP.

Kováčová host Liptovská Štiavnica at Štadión ŠK Prameň Kováčová.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.