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Barnet vs Bristol Rovers — League Two 2018

Barnet
Barnet
FT
1 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Bristol Rovers
Bristol Rovers
8/21/2012League TwoLeague Two · Round 2Underhill Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on xG from last 11+ matches

Barnet45%
×Draw24%
Bristol Rovers31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.2%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Barnet
1.65
Bristol Rovers
1.33

Barnet creates 24% more chances

Season form · 11 home / 13 away

creates per match

Barnet
2.03
Bristol Rovers
1.34

allows per match

Barnet
1.32
Bristol Rovers
1.26

finishing

Barnet-0.21scores less
Bristol Rovers-0.11scores less

Total goals

57%Over
  • Over57
  • Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

59%Yes
  • Yes59
  • No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Bristol Rovers →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–05%
0–17%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–08%
1–111%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
95%5%1.5
80%20%2.5
57%43%3.5
35%65%4.5
18%82%

Double chance

Barnet or draw
69%
Barnet or Bristol Rovers
76%
Draw or Bristol Rovers
55%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+
23%
Bristol Rovers wins by 2+
13%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals
81%
Barnet 2+ goals
49%
Barnet 3+ goals
23%
Bristol Rovers 1+ goals
74%
Bristol Rovers 2+ goals
38%
Bristol Rovers 3+ goals
15%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)
59%
Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)
41%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
48%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 2.03, concedes 1.32 · 11 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 1.34, concedes 1.26 · 13 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 2.03 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.26 → ÷2 → 1.65

Bristol Rovers attack 1.34 + Barnet defence 1.32 → ÷2 → 1.33

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Barnet scores more
45%
level
24%
Bristol Rovers scores more
31%

Barnet at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Barnet will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Recap: Barnet vs Bristol Rovers

Barnet and Bristol Rovers drew 1-1 in League Two on August 21, 2012.

The match was played at Underhill Stadium.