Barnet 1–1 Bristol Rovers: Result & Stats

Barnet

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Bristol Rovers

C. Robson 16'

C. Lines 66' (pen)

11/11/2018

League #45 · 1st RoundThe Hive Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 4+ matches

Barnet16%

×Draw20%

Bristol Rovers64%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.4%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 578,261 matches, vs 44.4% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50% correct · Away picks 48.9% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

BarnetExpected goals in this matchBristol Rovers

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

0.95

2.13

Barnet

0.95

Bristol Rovers

2.13

Bristol Rovers creates 124% more chances

Season form · 4 home / 5 away

0.50

creates per match

2.00

2.25

allows per match

1.40

creates per match

Barnet

0.50

Bristol Rovers

2.00

allows per match

Barnet

2.25

Bristol Rovers

1.40

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Barnet+0.00on par

Bristol Rovers+0.00on par

Total goals

Over59
Under41

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes54
No46

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Barnet ↓

Bristol Rovers →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–110%

0–210%

0–37%

0–44%

1

1–04%

1–19%

1–210%

1–37%

1–44%

2

2–02%

2–14%

2–25%

2–33%

2–42%

3

3–01%

3–11%

3–21%

3–31%

3–41%

4

4–00%

4–10%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

81%19%2.5

59%41%3.5

37%63%4.5

19%81%

Double chance

Barnet or draw

36%

Barnet or Bristol Rovers

80%

Draw or Bristol Rovers

84%

Winning margin

Barnet wins by 2+

5%

Bristol Rovers wins by 2+

40%

Team goals

Barnet 1+ goals

61%

Barnet 2+ goals

25%

Barnet 3+ goals

7%

Bristol Rovers 1+ goals

88%

Bristol Rovers 2+ goals

63%

Bristol Rovers 3+ goals

35%

Draw no bet

Barnet (draw refunded)

20%

Bristol Rovers (draw refunded)

80%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

45%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Barnet at home — creates 0.50, concedes 2.25 · 4 matches

Bristol Rovers away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.40 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Barnet attack 0.50 + Bristol Rovers defence 1.40 → ÷2 → 0.95

Bristol Rovers attack 2.00 + Barnet defence 2.25 → ÷2 → 2.13

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 64%?"

Barnet scores more

16%

level

20%

Bristol Rovers scores more

64%

Bristol Rovers at 64% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 64% does not mean "Bristol Rovers will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

7'

Stuart Sinclair

8'

Stefan Payne

16'

C. Robson↳ E. Johnson

23'

S. Matthews← S. Payne

23'

K. Bennett← D. Leadbitter

34'

Tom Nichols

46'

C. Lines← M. Kelly

66'

C. LinesPenalty

69'

D. Sparkes← W. Fonguck

79'

J. Walker← Mohamed Bettamer

85'

B. Harrison← I. Duku

86'

Tom Lockyer

Barnet

Bristol

21

Smith

5

Craig

15

Clarke

2

▼

Leadbitte

4

Lockyer

28

▼

7

8

24

9

▼

10

1

4

3

A

Johnson

2

Alexander

6

⚽

Robson

8

Adams

18

▼

Fonguck

12

Taylor

38

▼

Bettamer

26

Sweeney

37

▼

Duku

Manager: J. Still

69'▲D. Sparkes←▼W. Fonguck

79'▲J. Walker←▼Mohamed Bettamer

85'▲B. Harrison←▼I. Duku

Barnet substitutes

11Sparkes22Walker9Harrison7Tarpey23Tutonda13Matrevics10Coulthirst

Manager: D. Clarke

23'▲S. Matthews←▼S. Payne

23'▲K. Bennett←▼D. Leadbitter

46'▲C. Lines←▼M. Kelly

Bristol Rovers substitutes

26Matthews23Bennett14Lines22Partington20Reilly31André27Menayese