Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3–2 Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

3 – 2

HT: 0 – 0

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

K. Kort 85'

M. Kozajda 83'

P. Łysiak 70'

M. Stefanik 63' (pen)

K. Zawiślak 51'

8/20/2022

II Liga - East · Round 7Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg55%

×Draw25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg20%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchSiarka Tarnobrzeg

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.65

0.90

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.65

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

0.90

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 83% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 17 away

1.41

creates per match

1.00

0.79

allows per match

1.88

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.00

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Siarka Tarnobrzeg

1.88

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Siarka Tarnobrzeg+0.00on par

Total goals

Under53
Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Siarka Tarnobrzeg →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–17%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–25%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–011%

2–110%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–06%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

47%53%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

80%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

75%

Draw or Siarka Tarnobrzeg

45%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

30%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg wins by 2+

7%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

81%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

49%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

23%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 1+ goals

59%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 2+ goals

23%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3+ goals

6%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

73%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg (draw refunded)

27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Siarka Tarnobrzeg away — creates 1.00, concedes 1.88 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Siarka Tarnobrzeg defence 1.88 → ÷2 → 1.65

Siarka Tarnobrzeg attack 1.00 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 0.90

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

55%

level

25%

Siarka Tarnobrzeg scores more

20%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

33'

O. Yatsenko← S. Kaliniec

39'

S. Lewicki

43'

K. Jozefiak

46'

K. Zawiślak← S. Lewicki

48'

51'

58'

58'

60'

P. Łysiak← T. Kaczmarek

60'

K. Kort← K. Bartoś

60'

J. Szarpak← R. Tuleja

63'

M. StefanikPenalty

66'

L. Hrnciar

70'

P. Rogala← L. Hrnčiar

70'

P. Łysiak

75'

M. Cywiński← D. Chromiński

75'

J. Bojas← G. Goncerz

78'

F. Krempa← D. Bałdyga

82'

83'

85'

86'

90+6'

Kotwica

Siarka

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

Manager: M. Płuska

60'▲P. Łysiak←▼T. Kaczmarek

60'▲K. Kort←▼K. Bartoś

60'▲J. Szarpak←▼R. Tuleja

75'▲M. Cywiński←▼D. Chromiński

75'▲J. Bojas←▼G. Goncerz

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

ŁysiakKortSzarpakCywińskiBojas

Manager: S. Majak

33'▲O. Yatsenko←▼S. Kaliniec

46'▲K. Zawiślak←▼S. Lewicki

70'▲P. Rogala←▼L. Hrnčiar

78'▲F. Krempa←▼D. Bałdyga

Siarka Tarnobrzeg substitutes

YatsenkoZawiślakRogalaKrempa

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Siarka Tarnobrzeg 3-2 in II Liga - East on August 20, 2022.

Goals: K. Zawiślak (51'), M. Stefanik (63' pen), P. Łysiak (70'), M. Kozajda (83'), K. Kort (85').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg — II Liga - East 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Siarka Tarnobrzeg