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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Radunia Stężyca — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
0 – 4
Radunia Stężyca
Radunia Stężyca
8/29/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 5Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg24%
×Draw21%
Radunia Stężyca54%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.30
Radunia Stężyca
2.04

Radunia Stężyca creates 57% more chances

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.79
Radunia Stężyca
3.06

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.03
Radunia Stężyca
0.82

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Radunia Stężyca+0.00on par

Total goals

65%Over
  • Over65
  • Under35

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

63%Yes
  • Yes63
  • No37

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Radunia Stężyca →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–17%
0–27%
0–35%
0–43%
1
1–05%
1–19%
1–210%
1–37%
1–43%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–26%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–00%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
85%15%2.5
65%35%3.5
43%57%4.5
24%76%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
46%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Radunia Stężyca
79%
Draw or Radunia Stężyca
76%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
10%
Radunia Stężyca wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
73%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
37%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
14%
Radunia Stężyca 1+ goals
87%
Radunia Stężyca 2+ goals
60%
Radunia Stężyca 3+ goals
33%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
31%
Radunia Stężyca (draw refunded)
69%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

Radunia Stężyca away — creates 3.06, concedes 0.82 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.79 + Radunia Stężyca defence 0.82 → ÷2 → 1.30

Radunia Stężyca attack 3.06 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 2.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
24%
level
21%
Radunia Stężyca scores more
54%

Radunia Stężyca at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Radunia Stężyca will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Radunia Stężyca

Radunia Stężyca beat Kotwica Kołobrzeg 4-0 in III Liga - Group 2 on August 29, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.