Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–2 Olimpia Grudziądz

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

Olimpia Grudziądz

8/19/2023

II Liga - East · Round 5Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg48%

×Draw26%

Olimpia Grudziądz26%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchOlimpia Grudziądz

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.50

1.02

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.50

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.02

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 47% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 69 away

1.41

creates per match

1.26

0.79

allows per match

1.58

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.41

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.26

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.79

Olimpia Grudziądz

1.58

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Olimpia Grudziądz+0.00on par

Total goals

Under54
Over46

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No50
Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Olimpia Grudziądz →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–012%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–41%

2

2–09%

2–19%

2–25%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

72%28%2.5

46%54%3.5

25%75%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

74%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Olimpia Grudziądz

74%

Draw or Olimpia Grudziądz

52%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

24%

Olimpia Grudziądz wins by 2+

9%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

78%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

44%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

19%

Olimpia Grudziądz 1+ goals

64%

Olimpia Grudziądz 2+ goals

27%

Olimpia Grudziądz 3+ goals

8%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

65%

Olimpia Grudziądz (draw refunded)

35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

37%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Olimpia Grudziądz away — creates 1.26, concedes 1.58 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Olimpia Grudziądz defence 1.58 → ÷2 → 1.50

Olimpia Grudziądz attack 1.26 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.02

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

48%

level

26%

Olimpia Grudziądz scores more

26%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff