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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Nielba Wągrowiec — III Liga - Group 2 2020

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
3 – 1
Nielba Wągrowiec
Nielba Wągrowiec
10/30/2020III Liga - Group 2III Liga - Group 2 · Group 2 - 14Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg41%
×Draw23%
Nielba Wągrowiec36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.77
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.64

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 33 home / 17 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.79
Nielba Wągrowiec
2.24

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.03
Nielba Wągrowiec
1.76

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Nielba Wągrowiec+0.00on par

Total goals

66%Over
  • Over66
  • Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

67%Yes
  • Yes67
  • No33

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Nielba Wągrowiec →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–15%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–06%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–19%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
85%15%2.5
66%34%3.5
44%56%4.5
25%75%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
64%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Nielba Wągrowiec
77%
Draw or Nielba Wągrowiec
59%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
22%
Nielba Wągrowiec wins by 2+
18%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
83%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
53%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
26%
Nielba Wągrowiec 1+ goals
81%
Nielba Wągrowiec 2+ goals
49%
Nielba Wągrowiec 3+ goals
23%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
53%
Nielba Wągrowiec (draw refunded)
47%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
57%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.03 · 33 matches

Nielba Wągrowiec away — creates 2.24, concedes 1.76 · 17 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.79 + Nielba Wągrowiec defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Nielba Wągrowiec attack 2.24 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.03 → ÷2 → 1.64

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 41%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
41%
level
23%
Nielba Wągrowiec scores more
36%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 41% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 41% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Nielba Wągrowiec

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Nielba Wągrowiec 3-1 in III Liga - Group 2 on October 30, 2020.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.