Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1–1 Górnik Łęczna: Result & Stats

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

FT

1 – 1

HT: 1 – 0

Górnik Łęczna

M. Kozajda 6'

P. Banaszak 86'

9/21/2024

I Liga · Round 10Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg33%

×Draw29%

Górnik Łęczna38%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.2%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.2% correct across 585,598 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotwica KołobrzegExpected goals in this matchGórnik Łęczna

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.04

1.15

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.04

Górnik Łęczna

1.15

Górnik Łęczna creates 11% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 86 away

0.76

creates per match

1.13

1.18

allows per match

1.33

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

0.76

Górnik Łęczna

1.13

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg

1.18

Górnik Łęczna

1.33

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par

Górnik Łęczna+0.00on par

Total goals

Under63
Over37

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No56
Yes44

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Górnik Łęczna →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–011%

0–113%

0–27%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–012%

1–113%

1–28%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–06%

2–17%

2–24%

2–32%

2–40%

3

3–02%

3–12%

3–21%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–20%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 0–1 (13%) · grid covers 99% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

89%11%1.5

64%36%2.5

37%63%3.5

18%82%4.5

7%93%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw

62%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Górnik Łęczna

71%

Draw or Górnik Łęczna

67%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+

13%

Górnik Łęczna wins by 2+

16%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals

65%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals

28%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals

9%

Górnik Łęczna 1+ goals

68%

Górnik Łęczna 2+ goals

32%

Górnik Łęczna 3+ goals

11%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)

46%

Górnik Łęczna (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

31%

Both score & under 3

13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 0.76, concedes 1.18 · 17 matches

Górnik Łęczna away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.33 · 86 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 0.76 + Górnik Łęczna defence 1.33 → ÷2 → 1.04

Górnik Łęczna attack 1.13 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 1.18 → ÷2 → 1.15

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 38%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more

33%

level

29%

Górnik Łęczna scores more

38%

Górnik Łęczna at 38% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 38% does not mean "Górnik Łęczna will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

6'

M. Kozajda

32'

O. Oduko

40'

46'

62'

65'

67'

V. KostevychGoal Disallowed

71'

B. Akhmedov← K. Orlik

71'

F. Szabaciuk← M. Grabowski

71'

S. Krawczyk← F. Janaszek

72'

L. Kreković← A. Biegański

72'

M. Kurowski← M. Bykowski

77'

M. Roginić← D. Warchoł

80'

84'

86'

88'

88'

90+5'

L. Zietek

Kotwica

Górnik

▼

▼

▼

▼

▼

⚽

⚽

▼

▼

▼

Manager: R. Tarasiewicz

72'▲L. Kreković←▼A. Biegański

72'▲M. Kurowski←▼M. Bykowski

80'▲N. Rajsel←▼Jonathan

Kotwica Kołobrzeg substitutes

KrekovićKurowskiRajselKozłowskiKortKrzepiszZiętekRamosWitasik

Manager: P. Staňo

46'▲B. Spáčil←▼D. Ogaga

71'▲B. Akhmedov←▼K. Orlik

71'▲F. Szabaciuk←▼M. Grabowski

71'▲S. Krawczyk←▼F. Janaszek

77'▲M. Roginić←▼D. Warchoł

Górnik Łęczna substitutes

SpáčilAkhmedovSzabaciukKrawczykRoginićPindrochBarauskasTurskiTraoré

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Górnik Łęczna

Kotwica Kołobrzeg and Górnik Łęczna drew 1-1 in I Liga on September 21, 2024.

Goals: M. Kozajda (6'), P. Banaszak (86').

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Górnik Łęczna — I Liga 2026

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Match Events

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Górnik Łęczna