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Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Garbarnia Kraków — II Liga - East 2019

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
Kotwica Kołobrzeg
FT
3 – 0
HT: 1 – 0
Garbarnia Kraków
Garbarnia Kraków
10/4/2022II Liga - EastII Liga - East · Round 12Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 34+ matches

Kotwica Kołobrzeg46%
×Draw26%
Garbarnia Kraków27%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.44
Garbarnia Kraków
1.04

Kotwica Kołobrzeg creates 38% more chances

Season form · 34 home / 68 away

creates per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
1.41
Garbarnia Kraków
1.28

allows per match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg
0.79
Garbarnia Kraków
1.47

finishing

Kotwica Kołobrzeg+0.00on par
Garbarnia Kraków+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotwica Kołobrzeg ↓

Garbarnia Kraków →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kotwica Kołobrzeg or draw
73%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg or Garbarnia Kraków
74%
Draw or Garbarnia Kraków
54%

Winning margin

Kotwica Kołobrzeg wins by 2+
23%
Garbarnia Kraków wins by 2+
10%

Team goals

Kotwica Kołobrzeg 1+ goals
76%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 2+ goals
42%
Kotwica Kołobrzeg 3+ goals
18%
Garbarnia Kraków 1+ goals
65%
Garbarnia Kraków 2+ goals
28%
Garbarnia Kraków 3+ goals
9%

Draw no bet

Kotwica Kołobrzeg (draw refunded)
63%
Garbarnia Kraków (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at home — creates 1.41, concedes 0.79 · 34 matches

Garbarnia Kraków away — creates 1.28, concedes 1.47 · 68 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotwica Kołobrzeg attack 1.41 + Garbarnia Kraków defence 1.47 → ÷2 → 1.44

Garbarnia Kraków attack 1.28 + Kotwica Kołobrzeg defence 0.79 → ÷2 → 1.04

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kotwica Kołobrzeg scores more
46%
level
26%
Garbarnia Kraków scores more
27%

Kotwica Kołobrzeg at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kotwica Kołobrzeg will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kotwica Kołobrzeg vs Garbarnia Kraków

Kotwica Kołobrzeg beat Garbarnia Kraków 3-0 in II Liga - East on October 4, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Miejski im. Sebastiana Karpiniuka in Kołobrzeg.