Köttmannsdorf 0–2 Gmünd: Result & Stats

Köttmannsdorf

FT

0 – 2

Gmünd

11/7/2021

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 17Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 48+ matches

Köttmannsdorf48%

×Draw24%

Gmünd29%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KöttmannsdorfExpected goals in this matchGmünd

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.71

1.27

Köttmannsdorf

1.71

Gmünd

1.27

Köttmannsdorf creates 35% more chances

Season form · 92 home / 48 away

1.63

creates per match

1.13

1.41

allows per match

1.79

creates per match

Köttmannsdorf

1.63

Gmünd

1.13

allows per match

Köttmannsdorf

1.41

Gmünd

1.79

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par

Gmünd+0.00on par

Total goals

Over57
Under43

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes59
No41

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köttmannsdorf ↓

Gmünd →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–05%

0–16%

0–24%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–09%

1–111%

1–27%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–07%

2–19%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–04%

3–15%

3–23%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (11%) · grid covers 96% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

95%5%1.5

80%20%2.5

57%43%3.5

35%65%4.5

18%82%

Double chance

Köttmannsdorf or draw

71%

Köttmannsdorf or Gmünd

76%

Draw or Gmünd

52%

Winning margin

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+

25%

Gmünd wins by 2+

12%

Team goals

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals

82%

Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals

51%

Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals

24%

Gmünd 1+ goals

72%

Gmünd 2+ goals

36%

Gmünd 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)

63%

Gmünd (draw refunded)

37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

48%

Both score & under 3

11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köttmannsdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

Gmünd away — creates 1.13, concedes 1.79 · 48 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.63 + Gmünd defence 1.79 → ÷2 → 1.71

Gmünd attack 1.13 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 48%?"

Köttmannsdorf scores more

48%

level

24%

Gmünd scores more

29%

Köttmannsdorf at 48% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 48% does not mean "Köttmannsdorf will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff