Köttmannsdorf 2–2 ASK Klagenfurt: Result & Stats

Köttmannsdorf

FT

2 – 2

ASK Klagenfurt

9/25/2022

Landesliga - Karnten · Kärnten - 11Sportplatz ASKÖ Köttmannsdorf

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Köttmannsdorf37%

×Draw23%

ASK Klagenfurt39%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KöttmannsdorfExpected goals in this matchASK Klagenfurt

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.62

1.67

Köttmannsdorf

1.62

ASK Klagenfurt

1.67

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 92 home / 33 away

1.63

creates per match

1.94

1.41

allows per match

1.61

creates per match

Köttmannsdorf

1.63

ASK Klagenfurt

1.94

allows per match

Köttmannsdorf

1.41

ASK Klagenfurt

1.61

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Köttmannsdorf+0.00on par

ASK Klagenfurt+0.00on par

Total goals

Over64
Under36

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes65
No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Köttmannsdorf ↓

ASK Klagenfurt →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–16%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–06%

1–110%

1–28%

1–35%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–14%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

64%36%3.5

42%58%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Köttmannsdorf or draw

61%

Köttmannsdorf or ASK Klagenfurt

77%

Draw or ASK Klagenfurt

63%

Winning margin

Köttmannsdorf wins by 2+

18%

ASK Klagenfurt wins by 2+

20%

Team goals

Köttmannsdorf 1+ goals

80%

Köttmannsdorf 2+ goals

48%

Köttmannsdorf 3+ goals

22%

ASK Klagenfurt 1+ goals

81%

ASK Klagenfurt 2+ goals

50%

ASK Klagenfurt 3+ goals

23%

Draw no bet

Köttmannsdorf (draw refunded)

49%

ASK Klagenfurt (draw refunded)

51%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

55%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Köttmannsdorf at home — creates 1.63, concedes 1.41 · 92 matches

ASK Klagenfurt away — creates 1.94, concedes 1.61 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Köttmannsdorf attack 1.63 + ASK Klagenfurt defence 1.61 → ÷2 → 1.62

ASK Klagenfurt attack 1.94 + Köttmannsdorf defence 1.41 → ÷2 → 1.67

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 39%?"

Köttmannsdorf scores more

37%

level

23%

ASK Klagenfurt scores more

39%

ASK Klagenfurt at 39% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 39% does not mean "ASK Klagenfurt will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff