Kottern 2–3 Unterhaching II: Result & Stats

Kottern

FT

2 – 3

HT: 1 – 1

Unterhaching II

5/1/2025

Oberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 32ABT-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 16+ matches

Kottern54%

×Draw22%

Unterhaching II24%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

KotternExpected goals in this matchUnterhaching II

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.99

1.27

Kottern

1.99

Unterhaching II

1.27

Kottern creates 57% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 16 away

1.79

creates per match

1.00

1.53

allows per match

2.19

creates per match

Kottern

1.79

Unterhaching II

1.00

allows per match

Kottern

1.53

Unterhaching II

2.19

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kottern+0.00on par

Unterhaching II+0.00on par

Total goals

Over63
Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes62
No38

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kottern ↓

Unterhaching II →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–04%

0–15%

0–23%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–08%

1–110%

1–26%

1–33%

1–41%

2

2–08%

2–110%

2–26%

2–33%

2–41%

3

3–05%

3–16%

3–24%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–03%

4–13%

4–22%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

96%4%1.5

84%16%2.5

63%37%3.5

41%59%4.5

23%77%

Double chance

Kottern or draw

76%

Kottern or Unterhaching II

78%

Draw or Unterhaching II

46%

Winning margin

Kottern wins by 2+

31%

Unterhaching II wins by 2+

10%

Team goals

Kottern 1+ goals

86%

Kottern 2+ goals

59%

Kottern 3+ goals

32%

Unterhaching II 1+ goals

72%

Unterhaching II 2+ goals

36%

Unterhaching II 3+ goals

14%

Draw no bet

Kottern (draw refunded)

69%

Unterhaching II (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

52%

Both score & under 3

10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kottern at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.53 · 66 matches

Unterhaching II away — creates 1.00, concedes 2.19 · 16 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kottern attack 1.79 + Unterhaching II defence 2.19 → ÷2 → 1.99

Unterhaching II attack 1.00 + Kottern defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.27

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 54%?"

Kottern scores more

54%

level

22%

Unterhaching II scores more

24%

Kottern at 54% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 54% does not mean "Kottern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff