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Kottern vs Sonthofen — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Kottern
Kottern
FT
2 – 2
HT: 2 – 1
Sonthofen
Sonthofen
4/26/2025Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 31ABT-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 33+ matches

Kottern45%
×Draw23%
Sonthofen32%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kottern
1.77
Sonthofen
1.48

Kottern creates 20% more chances

Season form · 66 home / 33 away

creates per match

Kottern
1.79
Sonthofen
1.42

allows per match

Kottern
1.53
Sonthofen
1.76

finishing

Kottern+0.00on par
Sonthofen+0.00on par

Total goals

63%Over
  • Over63
  • Under37

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

64%Yes
  • Yes64
  • No36

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kottern ↓

Sonthofen →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–04%
0–16%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–07%
1–110%
1–28%
1–34%
1–41%
2
2–06%
2–19%
2–27%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–24%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–22%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (10%) · grid covers 95% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
96%4%1.5
83%17%2.5
63%37%3.5
41%59%4.5
23%77%

Double chance

Kottern or draw
68%
Kottern or Sonthofen
77%
Draw or Sonthofen
55%

Winning margin

Kottern wins by 2+
24%
Sonthofen wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kottern 1+ goals
83%
Kottern 2+ goals
53%
Kottern 3+ goals
26%
Sonthofen 1+ goals
77%
Sonthofen 2+ goals
43%
Sonthofen 3+ goals
19%

Draw no bet

Kottern (draw refunded)
58%
Sonthofen (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
54%
Both score & under 3
10%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kottern at home — creates 1.79, concedes 1.53 · 66 matches

Sonthofen away — creates 1.42, concedes 1.76 · 33 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kottern attack 1.79 + Sonthofen defence 1.76 → ÷2 → 1.77

Sonthofen attack 1.42 + Kottern defence 1.53 → ÷2 → 1.48

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kottern scores more
45%
level
23%
Sonthofen scores more
32%

Kottern at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kottern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Kottern 2–2 Sonthofen

Kottern and Sonthofen drew 2-2 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on April 26, 2025.

The match was played at ABT-Arena in Durach.