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Kottern vs Landsberg — Oberliga - Bayern Süd 2026

Kottern
Kottern
FT
3 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Landsberg
Landsberg
M. Dausch 68'
M. Jocham 65'
A. Speiser 4'
J. Haist 89'
8/24/2024Oberliga - Bayern SüdOberliga - Bayern Süd · Bayern Süd - 8ABT-Arena

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 5+ matches

Kottern59%
×Draw20%
Landsberg21%
✓ Correct in 49 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
48.6%
Always home
43.8%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 48.6% correct across 15,072 matches, vs 43.8% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.1% correct · Away picks 45.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kottern
2.27
Landsberg
1.28

Kottern creates 77% more chances

Season form · 6 home / 5 away

creates per match

Kottern
2.33
Landsberg
1.40

allows per match

Kottern
1.17
Landsberg
2.20

finishing

Kottern+0.00on par
Landsberg+0.00on par

Total goals

69%Over
  • Over69
  • Under31

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

65%Yes
  • Yes65
  • No35

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kottern ↓

Landsberg →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–14%
0–22%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–07%
1–18%
1–25%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–110%
2–26%
2–33%
2–41%
3
3–06%
3–17%
3–25%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–03%
4–14%
4–23%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 2–1 (10%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
87%13%2.5
69%31%3.5
47%53%4.5
28%72%

Double chance

Kottern or draw
79%
Kottern or Landsberg
80%
Draw or Landsberg
41%

Winning margin

Kottern wins by 2+
37%
Landsberg wins by 2+
8%

Team goals

Kottern 1+ goals
90%
Kottern 2+ goals
66%
Kottern 3+ goals
39%
Landsberg 1+ goals
72%
Landsberg 2+ goals
37%
Landsberg 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kottern (draw refunded)
74%
Landsberg (draw refunded)
26%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
56%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kottern at home — creates 2.33, concedes 1.17 · 6 matches

Landsberg away — creates 1.40, concedes 2.20 · 5 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kottern attack 2.33 + Landsberg defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 2.27

Landsberg attack 1.40 + Kottern defence 1.17 → ÷2 → 1.28

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 59%?"

Kottern scores more
59%
level
20%
Landsberg scores more
21%

Kottern at 59% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 59% does not mean "Kottern will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

4'
A. Speiser
65'
M. Jocham
68'
M. Dausch
89'
J. Haist

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Oberliga - Bayern Süd: Kottern 3–1 Landsberg

Kottern beat Landsberg 3-1 in Oberliga - Bayern Süd on August 24, 2024.

Goals: A. Speiser (4'), M. Jocham (65'), M. Dausch (68'), J. Haist (89').

The match was played at ABT-Arena in Durach.