Kotoku Royals 0–0 Nsoatreman: Result & Stats

Kotoku Royals

FT

0 – 0

HT: 0 – 0

Nsoatreman

9/25/2022

Premier League · Round 3Cape Coast Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals52%

×Draw26%

Nsoatreman23%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side

Model

49.7%

Always home

44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kotoku RoyalsExpected goals in this matchNsoatreman

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.55

0.94

Kotoku Royals

1.55

Nsoatreman

0.94

Kotoku Royals creates 65% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 45 away

1.47

creates per match

0.58

1.29

allows per match

1.64

creates per match

Kotoku Royals

1.47

Nsoatreman

0.58

allows per match

Kotoku Royals

1.29

Nsoatreman

1.64

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par

Nsoatreman+0.00on par

Total goals

Under55
Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

No52
Yes48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Nsoatreman →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–08%

0–18%

0–24%

0–31%

0–40%

1

1–013%

1–112%

1–26%

1–32%

1–40%

2

2–010%

2–19%

2–24%

2–31%

2–40%

3

3–05%

3–15%

3–22%

3–31%

3–40%

4

4–02%

4–12%

4–21%

4–30%

4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

92%8%1.5

71%29%2.5

45%55%3.5

24%76%4.5

11%89%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw

77%

Kotoku Royals or Nsoatreman

74%

Draw or Nsoatreman

48%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+

27%

Nsoatreman wins by 2+

8%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals

79%

Kotoku Royals 2+ goals

46%

Kotoku Royals 3+ goals

20%

Nsoatreman 1+ goals

61%

Nsoatreman 2+ goals

24%

Nsoatreman 3+ goals

7%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)

69%

Nsoatreman (draw refunded)

31%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

36%

Both score & under 3

12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Nsoatreman away — creates 0.58, concedes 1.64 · 45 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Nsoatreman defence 1.64 → ÷2 → 1.55

Nsoatreman attack 0.58 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.94

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 52%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more

52%

level

26%

Nsoatreman scores more

23%

Kotoku Royals at 52% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 52% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

46'

P. Dogbe← P. Dogbe

46'

A. R. Seidu← A. R. Seidu

62'

B. Addo

71'

S. Klutse← S. Klutse

77'

80'

A. Fawzi

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff