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Kotoku Royals vs Karela — Premier League 2019

Kotoku Royals
Kotoku Royals
FT
2 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Karela
Karela
C. Kumi 90+1'
R. Mensah 60'
Unknown 46'
A. Ayeh 26'
E. Boakye Owusu 1'
6/11/2023Premier LeaguePremier League · Round 34Dawu Sports Stadium

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 17+ matches

Kotoku Royals47%
×Draw27%
Karela26%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kotoku Royals
1.39
Karela
0.95

Kotoku Royals creates 46% more chances

Season form · 17 home / 109 away

creates per match

Kotoku Royals
1.47
Karela
0.61

allows per match

Kotoku Royals
1.29
Karela
1.31

finishing

Kotoku Royals+0.00on par
Karela+0.00on par

Total goals

59%Under
  • Under59
  • Over41

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

54%No
  • No54
  • Yes46

One side may not score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kotoku Royals ↓

Karela →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–010%
0–19%
0–24%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–013%
1–113%
1–26%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–09%
2–19%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
90%10%1.5
68%32%2.5
41%59%3.5
21%79%4.5
9%91%

Double chance

Kotoku Royals or draw
74%
Kotoku Royals or Karela
73%
Draw or Karela
53%

Winning margin

Kotoku Royals wins by 2+
23%
Karela wins by 2+
9%

Team goals

Kotoku Royals 1+ goals
75%
Kotoku Royals 2+ goals
40%
Kotoku Royals 3+ goals
16%
Karela 1+ goals
61%
Karela 2+ goals
25%
Karela 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kotoku Royals (draw refunded)
65%
Karela (draw refunded)
35%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
33%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kotoku Royals at home — creates 1.47, concedes 1.29 · 17 matches

Karela away — creates 0.61, concedes 1.31 · 109 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kotoku Royals attack 1.47 + Karela defence 1.31 → ÷2 → 1.39

Karela attack 0.61 + Kotoku Royals defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 0.95

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kotoku Royals scores more
47%
level
27%
Karela scores more
26%

Kotoku Royals at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Kotoku Royals will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Match Events

1'
E. Boakye Owusu
25'
26'
A. Ayeh
37'
C. Kumi← C. Kumi
40'
F. Ali
46'
60'
R. Mensah
63'
66'
F. A. KumiMissed penalty
67'
P. Abanga← P. Abanga
67'
T. Mensah← T. Mensah
90+1'
C. Kumi
90+4'

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Premier League: Kotoku Royals 2–3 Karela

Karela beat Kotoku Royals 3-2 in Premier League on June 11, 2023.

Goals: E. Boakye Owusu (1'), A. Ayeh (26'), ? (46'), R. Mensah (60'), C. Kumi (90+1').

The match was played at Dawu Sports Stadium in Accra.