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Kostinbrod vs Septemvri Simitli — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
3 – 1
HT: 2 – 1
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Simitli
11/11/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 17Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod44%
×Draw27%
Septemvri Simitli29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.40
Septemvri Simitli
1.09

Kostinbrod creates 28% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 94 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Septemvri Simitli
0.96

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Septemvri Simitli
1.48

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Septemvri Simitli+0.00on par

Total goals

55%Under
  • Under55
  • Over45

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

50%No
  • No50
  • Yes50

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Septemvri Simitli →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
71%29%2.5
45%55%3.5
24%76%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
71%
Kostinbrod or Septemvri Simitli
73%
Draw or Septemvri Simitli
56%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
21%
Septemvri Simitli wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
75%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
41%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
17%
Septemvri Simitli 1+ goals
66%
Septemvri Simitli 2+ goals
30%
Septemvri Simitli 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
60%
Septemvri Simitli (draw refunded)
40%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
37%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Septemvri Simitli away — creates 0.96, concedes 1.48 · 94 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Septemvri Simitli defence 1.48 → ÷2 → 1.40

Septemvri Simitli attack 0.96 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.09

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 44%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
44%
level
27%
Septemvri Simitli scores more
29%

Kostinbrod at 44% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 44% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kostinbrod vs Septemvri Simitli

Kostinbrod beat Septemvri Simitli 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 11, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.