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Kostinbrod vs Pirin Razlog — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
2 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Pirin Razlog
Pirin Razlog
8/23/2025Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 4Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod45%
×Draw26%
Pirin Razlog29%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.45
Pirin Razlog
1.10

Kostinbrod creates 32% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 131 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Pirin Razlog
0.98

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Pirin Razlog
1.57

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Pirin Razlog+0.00on par

Total goals

53%Under
  • Under53
  • Over47

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%Yes
  • Yes51
  • No49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Pirin Razlog →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–08%
0–19%
0–25%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
92%8%1.5
72%28%2.5
47%53%3.5
25%75%4.5
11%89%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
71%
Kostinbrod or Pirin Razlog
74%
Draw or Pirin Razlog
55%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
22%
Pirin Razlog wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
77%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
42%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
18%
Pirin Razlog 1+ goals
67%
Pirin Razlog 2+ goals
30%
Pirin Razlog 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
61%
Pirin Razlog (draw refunded)
39%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
39%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Pirin Razlog away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.57 · 131 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Pirin Razlog defence 1.57 → ÷2 → 1.45

Pirin Razlog attack 0.98 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
45%
level
26%
Pirin Razlog scores more
29%

Kostinbrod at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kostinbrod 2–0 Pirin Razlog

Kostinbrod beat Pirin Razlog 2-0 in Third League - Southwest on August 23, 2025.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.