Scoreo
FootballHockeyTennisBasketballVolleyballHandballBaseballRugbyMMAFormula 1

Kostinbrod vs Pirin Blagoevgrad II — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
2 – 1
HT: 1 – 0
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
5/18/2022Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · South-West - 35Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 37+ matches

Kostinbrod55%
×Draw24%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II20%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 6 more than always backing the home side
Model
49.7%
Always home
44.3%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 49.7% correct across 106,786 matches, vs 44.3% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.7% correct · Away picks 47.3% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.69
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.92

Kostinbrod creates 84% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 37 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
0.62

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Pirin Blagoevgrad II
2.05

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Pirin Blagoevgrad II+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Pirin Blagoevgrad II →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–17%
0–23%
0–31%
0–40%
1
1–012%
1–111%
1–25%
1–32%
1–40%
2
2–011%
2–110%
2–24%
2–31%
2–40%
3
3–06%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–03%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–0 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
80%
Kostinbrod or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
76%
Draw or Pirin Blagoevgrad II
45%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
30%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II wins by 2+
7%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
82%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
50%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
24%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 1+ goals
60%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2+ goals
23%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II 3+ goals
7%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
73%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II (draw refunded)
27%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
38%
Both score & under 3
11%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Pirin Blagoevgrad II away — creates 0.62, concedes 2.05 · 37 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Pirin Blagoevgrad II defence 2.05 → ÷2 → 1.69

Pirin Blagoevgrad II attack 0.62 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 0.92

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 55%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
55%
level
24%
Pirin Blagoevgrad II scores more
20%

Kostinbrod at 55% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 55% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kostinbrod 2–1 Pirin Blagoevgrad II

Kostinbrod beat Pirin Blagoevgrad II 2-1 in Third League - Southwest on May 18, 2022.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.