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Kostinbrod vs Oborishte — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
0 – 0
HT: 0 – 0
Oborishte
Oborishte
4/9/2026Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 27

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod40%
×Draw26%
Oborishte34%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.44
Oborishte
1.30

Kostinbrod creates 11% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 132 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Oborishte
1.39

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Oborishte
1.56

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Oborishte+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Over
  • Over52
  • Under48

Close call

Both teams score

55%Yes
  • Yes55
  • No45

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Oborishte →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–06%
0–18%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–09%
1–112%
1–28%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–07%
2–19%
2–26%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 97% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
94%6%1.5
76%24%2.5
52%48%3.5
29%71%4.5
14%86%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
66%
Kostinbrod or Oborishte
74%
Draw or Oborishte
60%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
19%
Oborishte wins by 2+
15%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
76%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
42%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
18%
Oborishte 1+ goals
73%
Oborishte 2+ goals
37%
Oborishte 3+ goals
14%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
54%
Oborishte (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
43%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Oborishte away — creates 1.39, concedes 1.56 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Oborishte defence 1.56 → ÷2 → 1.44

Oborishte attack 1.39 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.30

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 40%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
40%
level
26%
Oborishte scores more
34%

Kostinbrod at 40% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 40% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kostinbrod vs Oborishte

Kostinbrod and Oborishte drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on April 9, 2026.