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Kostinbrod vs Botev Ihtiman — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
0 – 0
Botev Ihtiman
Botev Ihtiman
2/17/2024Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 20Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod46%
×Draw26%
Botev Ihtiman28%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.50
Botev Ihtiman
1.10

Kostinbrod creates 36% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 132 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Botev Ihtiman
0.98

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Botev Ihtiman
1.67

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Botev Ihtiman+0.00on par

Total goals

52%Under
  • Under52
  • Over48

Close call

Both teams score

52%Yes
  • Yes52
  • No48

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Botev Ihtiman →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–07%
0–18%
0–24%
0–32%
0–40%
1
1–011%
1–112%
1–27%
1–32%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–41%
3
3–04%
3–15%
3–23%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–02%
4–12%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (12%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
93%7%1.5
73%27%2.5
48%52%3.5
26%74%4.5
12%88%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
72%
Kostinbrod or Botev Ihtiman
74%
Draw or Botev Ihtiman
54%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
23%
Botev Ihtiman wins by 2+
11%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
78%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
44%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
19%
Botev Ihtiman 1+ goals
67%
Botev Ihtiman 2+ goals
30%
Botev Ihtiman 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
63%
Botev Ihtiman (draw refunded)
37%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
40%
Both score & under 3
12%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Botev Ihtiman away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.67 · 132 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Botev Ihtiman defence 1.67 → ÷2 → 1.50

Botev Ihtiman attack 0.98 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 46%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
46%
level
26%
Botev Ihtiman scores more
28%

Kostinbrod at 46% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 46% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kostinbrod 0–0 Botev Ihtiman

Kostinbrod and Botev Ihtiman drew 0-0 in Third League - Southwest on February 17, 2024.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.