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Kostinbrod vs Bansko — Third League - Southwest 2018

Kostinbrod
Kostinbrod
FT
1 – 3
HT: 0 – 2
Bansko
Bansko
11/25/2023Third League - SouthwestThird League - Southwest · Southwest - 19Stadion Georgi Benkovski

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 69+ matches

Kostinbrod42%
×Draw27%
Bansko31%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostinbrod
1.34
Bansko
1.10

Kostinbrod creates 22% more chances

Season form · 69 home / 129 away

creates per match

Kostinbrod
1.32
Bansko
0.98

allows per match

Kostinbrod
1.22
Bansko
1.36

finishing

Kostinbrod+0.00on par
Bansko+0.00on par

Total goals

56%Under
  • Under56
  • Over44

Fewer than 3 goals likely

Both teams score

51%No
  • No51
  • Yes49

Close call

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostinbrod ↓

Bansko →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–09%
0–110%
0–25%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–012%
1–113%
1–27%
1–33%
1–41%
2
2–08%
2–19%
2–25%
2–32%
2–40%
3
3–03%
3–14%
3–22%
3–31%
3–40%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–30%
4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (13%) · grid covers 98% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
91%9%1.5
70%30%2.5
44%56%3.5
23%77%4.5
10%90%

Double chance

Kostinbrod or draw
69%
Kostinbrod or Bansko
73%
Draw or Bansko
58%

Winning margin

Kostinbrod wins by 2+
19%
Bansko wins by 2+
12%

Team goals

Kostinbrod 1+ goals
74%
Kostinbrod 2+ goals
39%
Kostinbrod 3+ goals
15%
Bansko 1+ goals
67%
Bansko 2+ goals
30%
Bansko 3+ goals
10%

Draw no bet

Kostinbrod (draw refunded)
58%
Bansko (draw refunded)
42%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
36%
Both score & under 3
13%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostinbrod at home — creates 1.32, concedes 1.22 · 69 matches

Bansko away — creates 0.98, concedes 1.36 · 129 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostinbrod attack 1.32 + Bansko defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.34

Bansko attack 0.98 + Kostinbrod defence 1.22 → ÷2 → 1.10

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kostinbrod scores more
42%
level
27%
Bansko scores more
31%

Kostinbrod at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kostinbrod will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Third League - Southwest: Kostinbrod 1–3 Bansko

Bansko beat Kostinbrod 3-1 in Third League - Southwest on November 25, 2023.

The match was played at Stadion Georgi Benkovski in Kostinbrod.