Kostelec na Hané 4–3 Vsetín: Result & Stats

Kostelec na Hané

FT

4 – 3

Vsetín

3/17/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 17Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané31%

×Draw22%

Vsetín47%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kostelec na HanéExpected goals in this matchVsetín

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.52

1.91

Kostelec na Hané

1.52

Vsetín

1.91

Vsetín creates 26% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 67 away

1.67

creates per match

1.49

2.33

allows per match

1.36

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané

1.67

Vsetín

1.49

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané

2.33

Vsetín

1.36

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Vsetín+0.00on par

Total goals

Over66
Under34

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes66
No34

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Vsetín →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–16%

0–26%

0–34%

0–42%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–29%

1–36%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–17%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–23%

3–32%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–11%

4–21%

4–31%

4–40%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 94% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

86%14%2.5

66%34%3.5

45%55%4.5

26%74%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw

53%

Kostelec na Hané or Vsetín

78%

Draw or Vsetín

69%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

14%

Vsetín wins by 2+

26%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

78%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

45%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

20%

Vsetín 1+ goals

85%

Vsetín 2+ goals

57%

Vsetín 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

40%

Vsetín (draw refunded)

60%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

57%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Vsetín away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.36 · 67 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Vsetín defence 1.36 → ÷2 → 1.52

Vsetín attack 1.49 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 47%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more

31%

level

22%

Vsetín scores more

47%

Vsetín at 47% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 47% does not mean "Vsetín will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff