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Kostelec na Hané vs Šumperk — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
CANC
00:00
Šumperk
Šumperk
3/23/20254. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 18Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané42%
×Draw22%
Šumperk36%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostelec na Hané
1.94
Šumperk
1.79

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 51 away

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané
1.67
Šumperk
1.25

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané
2.33
Šumperk
2.20

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par
Šumperk+0.00on par

Total goals

72%Over
  • Over72
  • Under28

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

71%Yes
  • Yes71
  • No29

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Šumperk →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–02%
0–14%
0–24%
0–32%
0–41%
1
1–05%
1–18%
1–28%
1–34%
1–42%
2
2–05%
2–18%
2–27%
2–34%
2–42%
3
3–03%
3–15%
3–25%
3–33%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–13%
4–22%
4–31%
4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
98%2%1.5
89%11%2.5
72%28%3.5
51%49%4.5
31%69%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw
64%
Kostelec na Hané or Šumperk
78%
Draw or Šumperk
58%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
23%
Šumperk wins by 2+
19%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
86%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
58%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
30%
Šumperk 1+ goals
83%
Šumperk 2+ goals
53%
Šumperk 3+ goals
26%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
54%
Šumperk (draw refunded)
46%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
63%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Šumperk away — creates 1.25, concedes 2.20 · 51 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Šumperk defence 2.20 → ÷2 → 1.94

Šumperk attack 1.25 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.79

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more
42%
level
22%
Šumperk scores more
36%

Kostelec na Hané at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Kostelec na Hané will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kostelec na Hané vs Šumperk — Match Preview

Kostelec na Hané face Šumperk on March 23, 2025 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kostelec na Hané host Šumperk at Hrište Kostelec na Hané.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.