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Kostelec na Hané vs Hranice — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Kostelec na Hané
Kostelec na Hané
CANC
15:00
Hranice
Hranice
8/11/20244. liga - Divizie E4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 2Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané26%
×Draw21%
Hranice53%
✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side
Model
50.3%
Always home
44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

Kostelec na Hané
1.48
Hranice
2.17

Hranice creates 47% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 38 away

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané
1.67
Hranice
2.00

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané
2.33
Hranice
1.29

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par
Hranice+0.00on par

Total goals

70%Over
  • Over70
  • Under30

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

68%Yes
  • Yes68
  • No32

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Hranice →
0
1
2
3
4
0
0–03%
0–16%
0–26%
0–34%
0–42%
1
1–04%
1–18%
1–29%
1–37%
1–44%
2
2–03%
2–16%
2–27%
2–35%
2–43%
3
3–01%
3–13%
3–23%
3–32%
3–41%
4
4–01%
4–11%
4–21%
4–31%
4–40%

Most likely 1–2 (9%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5
97%3%1.5
88%12%2.5
70%30%3.5
49%51%4.5
30%70%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw
47%
Kostelec na Hané or Hranice
79%
Draw or Hranice
74%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+
12%
Hranice wins by 2+
32%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals
77%
Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals
43%
Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals
19%
Hranice 1+ goals
89%
Hranice 2+ goals
64%
Hranice 3+ goals
36%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)
33%
Hranice (draw refunded)
67%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals
60%
Both score & under 3
8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Hranice away — creates 2.00, concedes 1.29 · 38 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Hranice defence 1.29 → ÷2 → 1.48

Hranice attack 2.00 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 2.17

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 53%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more
26%
level
21%
Hranice scores more
53%

Hranice at 53% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

  • injuries & suspensions
  • the matchday lineup
  • motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
  • weather & pitch condition
  • in-game coaching decisions

So 53% does not mean "Hranice will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Kostelec na Hané vs Hranice — Match Preview

Kostelec na Hané face Hranice on August 11, 2024 in this 4. liga - Divizie E fixture. Get live scores, lineups, and real-time match statistics here when the game starts.

Kostelec na Hané host Hranice at Hrište Kostelec na Hané.

Submit your prediction below — exact score, 1X2, total goals, and both teams to score. Earn XP for correct picks.