Kostelec na Hané 2–4 Holešov: Result & Stats

Kostelec na Hané

FT

2 – 4

HT: 1 – 1

Holešov

4/7/2024

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 20Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané36%

×Draw22%

Holešov42%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kostelec na HanéExpected goals in this matchHolešov

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

1.75

1.91

Kostelec na Hané

1.75

Holešov

1.91

Both teams create about equally

Season form · 15 home / 69 away

1.67

creates per match

1.49

2.33

allows per match

1.84

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané

1.67

Holešov

1.49

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané

2.33

Holešov

1.84

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

Holešov+0.00on par

Total goals

Over71
Under29

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes70
No30

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

Holešov →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–03%

0–15%

0–25%

0–33%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–19%

1–28%

1–35%

1–43%

2

2–04%

2–18%

2–27%

2–35%

2–42%

3

3–02%

3–14%

3–24%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–01%

4–12%

4–22%

4–31%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (9%) · grid covers 93% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

97%3%1.5

88%12%2.5

71%29%3.5

49%51%4.5

30%70%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw

58%

Kostelec na Hané or Holešov

78%

Draw or Holešov

64%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

18%

Holešov wins by 2+

23%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

83%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

52%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

25%

Holešov 1+ goals

85%

Holešov 2+ goals

57%

Holešov 3+ goals

30%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

46%

Holešov (draw refunded)

54%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

62%

Both score & under 3

9%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

Holešov away — creates 1.49, concedes 1.84 · 69 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + Holešov defence 1.84 → ÷2 → 1.75

Holešov attack 1.49 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.91

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 42%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more

36%

level

22%

Holešov scores more

42%

Holešov at 42% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 42% does not mean "Holešov will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff