Kostelec na Hané 0–2 HFK Olomouc: Result & Stats

Kostelec na Hané

FT

0 – 2

HT: 0 – 1

HFK Olomouc

8/19/2023

4. liga - Divizie E · Division E - 3Hrište Kostelec na Hané

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Based on goals from last 15+ matches

Kostelec na Hané45%

×Draw21%

HFK Olomouc34%

✓ Correct in 50 of 100 matches — 5 more than always backing the home side

Model

50.3%

Always home

44.5%

The model picks a winner (home or away) for each finished match using only pre-kickoff data, then checks it against the real result: 50.3% correct across 582,450 matches, vs 44.5% for always backing the home side.

Home picks 50.5% correct · Away picks 49.5% correct

Football matches only. Past performance is not indicative of future results.

Kostelec na HanéExpected goals in this matchHFK Olomouc

Expected goals in this match

What is xG?

Every shot is scored 0–1 by how likely it is to be a goal from that spot — a chance in the middle of the box ≈ 0.4, a long shot from a tight angle ≈ 0.03, a penalty ≈ 0.76. Add them up over a match and that is the xG.

The scoreline can lie: you can win 1-0 on a fluke while creating half the chances. xG shows who was really closer to scoring — and over a season it predicts results better than goals alone.

2.06

1.77

Kostelec na Hané

2.06

HFK Olomouc

1.77

Kostelec na Hané creates 16% more chances

Season form · 15 home / 66 away

1.67

creates per match

1.21

2.33

allows per match

2.45

creates per match

Kostelec na Hané

1.67

HFK Olomouc

1.21

allows per match

Kostelec na Hané

2.33

HFK Olomouc

2.45

+0.00on par

finishing

+0.00on par

finishing

Kostelec na Hané+0.00on par

HFK Olomouc+0.00on par

Total goals

Over73
Under27

3+ goals likely

Both teams score

Yes72
No28

Both teams likely to score

Score probability

Probability of each scoreline, %

Kostelec na Hané ↓

HFK Olomouc →

0

1

2

3

4

0

0–02%

0–14%

0–23%

0–32%

0–41%

1

1–05%

1–18%

1–27%

1–34%

1–42%

2

2–05%

2–18%

2–27%

2–34%

2–42%

3

3–03%

3–16%

3–25%

3–33%

3–41%

4

4–02%

4–13%

4–23%

4–32%

4–41%

Most likely 1–1 (8%) · grid covers 92% of scorelines

More markets

Total goals

OverUnder0.5

98%2%1.5

89%11%2.5

73%27%3.5

53%47%4.5

33%67%

Double chance

Kostelec na Hané or draw

66%

Kostelec na Hané or HFK Olomouc

79%

Draw or HFK Olomouc

55%

Winning margin

Kostelec na Hané wins by 2+

25%

HFK Olomouc wins by 2+

17%

Team goals

Kostelec na Hané 1+ goals

87%

Kostelec na Hané 2+ goals

61%

Kostelec na Hané 3+ goals

34%

HFK Olomouc 1+ goals

83%

HFK Olomouc 2+ goals

53%

HFK Olomouc 3+ goals

26%

Draw no bet

Kostelec na Hané (draw refunded)

57%

HFK Olomouc (draw refunded)

43%

Combos

Both score & 3+ goals

64%

Both score & under 3

8%

Model probabilities, not odds. For information only.

How is this calculated?

Every number below comes from this match — nothing is made up.

1

Recent form of each side

Kostelec na Hané at home — creates 1.67, concedes 2.33 · 15 matches

HFK Olomouc away — creates 1.21, concedes 2.45 · 66 matches

⚑ Home and away form are counted separately — the home-field edge is already baked into these numbers.

2

Expected goals for this match

Kostelec na Hané attack 1.67 + HFK Olomouc defence 2.45 → ÷2 → 2.06

HFK Olomouc attack 1.21 + Kostelec na Hané defence 2.33 → ÷2 → 1.77

Each side's attack is blended with the other's defence, then averaged.

3

Chance of every scoreline

From those two numbers a Poisson distribution gives the probability of each exact score — the grid shown above.

4

The answer to "why 45%?"

Kostelec na Hané scores more

45%

level

21%

HFK Olomouc scores more

34%

Kostelec na Hané at 45% is simply the biggest of the three — that is the pick.

What the model can't see

It reads only the stats of recent matches. It knows nothing about:

injuries & suspensions
the matchday lineup
motivation — cup, relegation, a title race
weather & pitch condition
in-game coaching decisions

So 45% does not mean "Kostelec na Hané will win" — it means "on the available stats, this is the most likely result."

Statistical model based on expected goals (xG). For informational purposes only.

Probable lineups not yet announced

Starting lineups are usually confirmed ~1 hour before kickoff

Match Recap: Kostelec na Hané vs HFK Olomouc

HFK Olomouc beat Kostelec na Hané 2-0 in 4. liga - Divizie E on August 19, 2023.

The match was played at Hrište Kostelec na Hané in Kostelec na Hané.

Kostelec na Hané vs HFK Olomouc — 4. liga - Divizie E 2019

Match Prediction

Statistical Prediction

Total goals

Both teams score

Head to Head

Match Recap: Kostelec na Hané vs HFK Olomouc